Tail wags the dog as Congress and BJP whine and wobble

Free roaming is—as yet—just an objective on paper in the new telecom policy. But across the country, regional political parties and the derivative traders of the electoral markets have unveiled a series of pilot projects to test the spectrum of opportunity on competing political networks.

On Friday, as leaders of the BJP braved 40-plus degree Celsius heat and courted arrest—to highlight the mismanagement of the economy—its biggest ally, the Janata Dal (United), gave Pranab Mukherjee a clean chit and declared that the BJP couldn’t have done better. Mind you, this is not just any other “difference of opinion”. The UPA has been on the back-foot on management of the economy and yet the JD(U) gave it a clean chit. It was decidedly a snub to beat all snubs. As news channels went to town with the bytes, the JD(U) refused to budge and forced the BJP into a dodge-duck-weave routine.

And it wasn’t the first snub. In the run-up to the nomination for the post of President, the JD(U) first ignored the BJP and rooted for Hamid Ansari and eventually endorsed Mukherjee. Even as the BJP stirred from this embarrassment, Nitish Kumar chose to corral the BJP in its choice for prime minister for 2014: by declaring that Narendra Modi was unacceptable.

Now it can be argued that Nitish was speaking for a section of the BJP’s Delhi Darbar. But such is the state of the civil war in the BJP that for a stunning 24 hours nobody stood up to defend the suzerainty of the party. Not till Mohan Bhagwat, head of the RSS, spoke up.

The Congress may have enjoyed its moment of schadenfreude, but its state is worse. Nothing reflects the sorry state of affairs better than the inability of the Congress to deal with the tantrums of the Trinamool Congress. In March this year, it could only wring its hands in despair following the real-time sacking of the railway minister and the imposition of a new minister and budget. When Mamata Banerjee audaciously suggested the name of the sitting Prime Minister as a presidential candidate, it took the Congress 17 hours to rebut it. Sure, it got Mulayam Singh Yadav to do the magical U-turn but despite dire provocations, the Congress cannot give Mamata the marching orders.

Neither can the BJP tell the JD(U) off. Or for that matter, its oldest ally, the Shiv Sena which ditched the BJP to enter into a sophisticated transaction to support Mukherjee. It is not a gambit just to counter the murmurs in the BJP to tie up with Raj Thackeray. It is a move to log into free space so that they could align with Sharad Pawar-led NCP—at the Centre or in Maharashtra. The regional players have tasted blood—at recent Assembly polls and byelections. Take Andhra Pradesh, where a rookie like Jagan Mohan Reddy reduced the Congress into a bit player. 

And this is just the beginning of network testing. The political potential of “free roaming” scarcely needs emphasis. The tail is wagging the dog. Neither the Congress nor the BJP can come to power on its own, or have the gumption for the risk. The clichéd analysis is that they have brands but lack dealer networks. That is not correct. The two national parties have neither an electorally saleable product nor a network to effectively hawk their promises.

There is neither the magnetic mysticism of a Vajpayee nor the captivating charisma of an Indira. They have failed to reinvent themselves—in power and in opposition. It is no secret that the Congress is irrelevant in nearly 100 Lok Sabha constituencies and the BJP in 170 constituencies. In the 2009 polls, the two national parties accounted for 241 candidates who lost their deposits. In the largest market Uttar Pradesh which has 80 Lok Sabha seats—the two parties are extras who have in two elections scored 20 and 31.

The spectre of an alternative formation—third front or whatever you so prefer—is real. Regional parties dominate the landscape in nearly 250 Lok Sabha seats. It is plausible that between them, the Congress and the BJP may bag between 250 and 300 seats. If the BJP fails to score over 170 and the Congress 150, the field will be wide open. For Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar, J Jayalalithaa, Sharad Pawar or even Naveen Patnaik, the circumstance would offer a legitimate opportunity to bid for the top job or play kingmaker. They could argue that they are under no obligation to install a Congress or a BJP prime minister. The regional fronts sense an opportunity—as in 1996, when a ragtag coalition of 140 came to power backed by the Congress—and therefore are ready to wag the dog.

The Big Two have brought this upon themselves.  They have opened up the derivative market for the blue chip position. They have also laid the economy open to the vagaries of political instability. The focus of the Congress or BJP while shepherding parties into UPA or NDA has been based on what the regional fronts are against. The focus must shift to what they stand for. This requires both the Congress and BJP to first outline what THEY stand for. Or else they will be national parties only in name. And time is running out.

Shankkar Aiyar is a senior journalist who specialises in the politics of economics