Real surprise could be the new Vice-President

Politics is a hard game and is all about holding your nerve. In the past decade, we have seen two distinct phases when economic chaos has affected the global economy. We have seen the crisis in 2008 brought about by derivatives designed in ‘outer space’ and the collapse of the financial system in the US, UK and Europe by large-scale financial bungling and fraud. We in India, with our ‘archaic’ banking system ridiculed by many, provided stability and support. Now we have another crisis in the Western world generated by huge deficits created by excessive spending of funds which do not exist and again this time there has been infusion of ‘excessive’ liquidity but we see very slow growth in the US and a visible recession in Europe. All the BRIC nations have suffered a decline and both China and India have dropped 2-3% in GDP.   

We are obsessed with negative thoughts and sadly, much of this is generated by the fluid political situation and lack of effective governance at the Centre. The Agni V launch was a spectacular success and I would have been delighted to see senior political leaders (past, present and future) go to the site and applaud our scientific community; it would be nice to know our scientific super stars and their families. I was happy to see that a news channel or two were there at the launch site.

I am wary of the conspiracy theory but after the episode in the defence ministry and the very deliberate attempt to create friction between the defence minister and the Chief of Army Staff which did not work, but I cannot help wonder where the spate of reports appeared from, showing India in poor light against the Chinese. Were these leaked by elements who were aware of the Agni V launch and its strategic importance as a viable deterrent? The Chinese reaction was ‘sweet and sour’ but the global community, and in particular the US, was full of praise and this is well deserved.       

The UPA or the NDA does not have the numbers to select and elect a new President and Vice-President; the regional parties may hold the key. The method for everyone to claim victory is to quietly arrive at a political consensus. The regional parties confer with each other and with the UPA and NDA. The game of ‘musical chairs’ is on and I am happy to note that everyone is keeping their cards very close to their chest. The reality is that these choices will give a peep into the future alliance structure. Let us see the options available with each party. The Congress does not have the numbers but is an important player. It will go with the flow if the regional parties arrive at a consensus. The BJP will also adopt a wait-and-watch attitude. My personal assessment is that while the selection of the President will be from the names in circulation, we may have a surprise candidate for the Vice-President.

The BJP’s positive showing in the Assembly elections in Punjab and Goa, where Manohar Parrikar defeated the mining and real estate lobbies, its Delhi MCD polls win and beating the anti-incumbency trends have reduced the pressure on change within the party and BJP president Nitin Gadkari is very much in control. The Congress party has much to do and cosmetic changes will achieve little. I get rather amused when the talk revolves around a Cabinet or a party reshuffle; do you unearth talent at the beginning or towards the end of the term? We know who leads the regional parties but who leads the Congress and the BJP, and the decision-making process at the Centre and who will lead the party in the state?

The BJP has Narendra Modi in Gujarat, P K Dhumal in Himachal Pradesh, Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh, but who will lead the party in Delhi and Karnataka? The Congress has Sheila Dikshit in Delhi but who will lead the party at the local level in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka? Also, can Ashok Gehlot win a second term in Rajasthan? Every election produces a surprise verdict as the public mood is three steps ahead of the political system. We have seen this in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and even in Goa and make no mistake that Akhilesh Yadav, Sukhbir Singh Badal, Manohar Parikkar made the difference, and no Central leader today can swing a state election.   

E-mail the writer at arunnehru89@yahoo.in
The opinions expressed in this column are the author’s own
Nehru is a former Union minister